Isolated Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Update

  1. A strong cold front will move across the region today.
  2. Expect scattered thunderstorms with the front, with a few storms possibly becoming strong to locally severe. Strong winds of 40 mph to in excess of 60 mph will be the main threat, with an isolated tornado possible.
  3. Expect the greatest risk of severe storms across interior sections in the mid to late morning hours, with the threat east toward the coast in the early afternoon.
  4. Total rainfall amounts will range from one-half to 1 inch, but briefly heavy showers will be possible.
  5. A strong or severe thunderstorm is possible with the main threat straight-line wind gusts. But, an isolated brief tornado is a slight possibility.
  6. Monitor NWS Jacksonville and local media outlets for changes and trends.
  7. A slide briefing will be posted to our website as necessary. Stay tuned!

01-22-16
10:30 hrs

Isolated Strong Thunderstorms Warning

NOAA have just issued this, so better safe than sorry.

  1. A strong cold front will move across the region on Friday, January 22, 2016.
  2. Given the rapid speed of motion with the front, a few strong storms and even a severe storm are possible due to gusty winds. An isolated brief tornado is not out of the question during a 2-3 hour period associated with the front.
  3. The timing of showers and isolated storms is a bit uncertain, but mostly likely between 7 AM and 3 PM.
  4. There is high confidence in rain showers with some gusty winds at times. However, there is low confidence in severe thunderstorms. Total rainfall amounts will be under 1 inch, but briefly heavy showers are expected

Storm Prediction Center Day 3 Severe Weather Outlook for Friday and the NWS WFO Jacksonville Area Of Responsibility.
At this time, there is a marginal risk across the FL panhandle, but there is a possibility this risk may be extended east into NE FL and SE GA, but is highly dependent on how unstable our air mass gets ahead of the front.

  1. The earliest thunderstorm activity will be over the western zones by 7 AM Friday. A line of showers and storms will move west to east quickly.
  2. A strong or severe thunderstorm is possible with the main threat straight-line wind gusts. But, an isolated brief tornado is a slight possibility.
  3. Monitor NWS Jacksonville and local media outlets for changes and trends.
  4. The next weather briefing is expected to be issued around 3 PM Thursday, or sooner if conditions warrant. Stay tuned!

Useful links for this warning

  1. NWS EDD
  2. SPC Outlooks
  3. Radar

01-20-16
17:00 hrs