Synopsis & Timing
A swath of moderate rainfall along a warm front will continue to shift northward this morning over NE Florida and then over SE Georgia this afternoon. A few embedded thunderstorms are possible, but there is little potential for severe storms today. The main hazard will be locally heavy rainfall. Thus far, NWS Doppler radar indicated 24-hr rainfall across portions of Marion County of 2-2.5 inches.
The swath of heavier rainfall will continue to shift northward over SE Georgia tonight trailed by scattered to isolated showers over NE Florida into Tuesday morning.
A more widespread heavy rainfall event will unfold Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday ahead of a cold front, with an extended period of heavy rainfall expected across inland SE Georgia and the Suwannee River Valley of NE Florida. There is also the potential for a few strong to severe storms during this period.
Rainfall will gradually diminish west to east Wednesday night trailing a cold frontal passage. Cooler and drier conditions are expected by Thursday, Christmas day.
The main local impact from this storm system will be widespread heavy rainfall with storm totals nearing 3-5 inches. Locally higher amounts are likely especially over portions of the Suwannee River Valley. There is also the potential for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms, mainly Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday especially across the Suwannee River Valley.
At this time, widespread flooding is not a major concern given that it has almost been a month since significant rainfall fell across most locations. Waves of heavy rainfall are expected during two distinct periods. The first wave of moderate rainfall will continue to lift northward today, with a break in persistent widespread rainfall tonight and early Tuesday morning. The second wave of moderate to heavy rainfall is expected late Tuesday through Wednesday ahead of cold front.
A few strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday across northeast Florida. A few strong storms may impact southeast Georgia Tuesday Night, but instability will be more limited over this area. There will be a variety of strong to severe storms hazards including gusty winds of 40-60 mph, hail, and the potential for brief tornadoes, especially across the Suwannee River Valley Tuesday night and early Wednesday.
Please continue to monitor this evolving weather pattern.